Surplus volume spikes require knowledge around macroeconomic trends and how the flow moves around specific indicators. This is why becoming a business entrepreneur or joining the industry is not as simple as jumping right in.
These spikes are important because they refer to periods when excess inventory and liquidation opportunities surge. For people in the industry, surplus moves around excess and liquidation. It is only natural that they become the central piece in keeping your business afloat.
But what should you do in specific as a surplus company? you need to read these signals in order to timely source, price, and control risk management.
At Coastal Surplus Solutions, we have been working in the surplus industry for over a decade. Hence, we understand the importance of reading indicators, controlling them, or working on the new spikes.
Here, we want to share the key to the economic indicators that often predict what to do next: buy or not? Anything surplus related to your business.
GDP Growth and Economic Slowdowns
A slowdown or contraction in GDP growth is a classic precursor to surplus spikes.
When economies underperform or enter recession, businesses often face declining sales, leading to overstock and the need to liquidate assets.
A great example is how the U.S. economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, but this was after a period of expansion.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone moved in the opposite direction and only went over a modest growth, according to reports of the Economy and Finance.
Regardless of the contraction or expansion, but periods offer higher surplus as companies adjust. They either work on the weaker demand or restructure the chain and operations.
Trade Policy Shifts and Tariffs
All changes in something that were usually pre-established are always an indicator of problems or something to handle.
Changes in trade policy, like the imposition of new tariffs and trade barriers, can disrupt supply chains. This causes inventory imbalances and brings new approaches for surplus as a whole.
2025 has been going around with increased tariffs and trade uncertainty. This has led to businesses front loading imports and building up inventories. This is all ahead of policy changes.
What happened? The strategy blew in their faces when demand projections missed the mark.
This is why liquidation events and surplus sales take place during these conditions. Companies and manufacturers need to rebalance stock.
Consumer Confidence and Spending Patterns
This indicates retail and manufacturing health. You want your consumers to be confident about their spending and if they are, you have a great business ahead of you.
However, the U.S. has experienced a drop in consumer spending during the first half of 2025. This means that businesses are not moving their inventory as previously intended.
As a surplus company, you get the chance to come in for inventory turnover, working on surplus volumes, and getting unsold goods.
Inflation and Disinflation Trends
Good old inflation. Periods of high inflation always led to increased surplus as companies and people try to find better prices.
Companies in specific want to go over-order to hedge against future price hikes, but this ends in demand faltering and not providing the expectations.
You can offer a rapid option to move the inventory, make it valuable again, and prompt companies to liquidate surplus. This is all to avoid further losses.
Disinflation can lead to slightly the same depending on the spending patterns of people, but also the companies and businesses.
How to Control Surplus Sourcing
Coastal Surplus Solutions offers multiple services to help you through it.
We source goods, streamline logistics, and handle shipping and delivery as needed. Feel free to contact us and learn more about our services.
